Energy Market Monitor

Trend Day Ahead Prices (Long-term)

Structural market evolution — uses all available years

Avg Price (€/MWh)

Avg Daily Spread — top/bottom 4h (€/MWh)

Total Negative Quarters

Avg Negative Price (€/MWh)

Day Ahead Prices (2025)

Quarter-hourly (15-min) ENTSO-E data

Belgium — Price Spread & Average (2025)

30-day rolling max/min with rolling average spread (red line)

Monthly Negative Prices + Avg Price (2025)

Negative-price 15-min intervals per month, years shown side-by-side · lines = avg monthly price (right axis)

Monthly Negative Prices (2024-2025)

One stacked bar per year × month: shallow (>-1) vs deep (<-1) hours

Duck Curve

Midday depression from solar — PV-only cases harder without storage

Daily Price Spread Distribution (2025)

Distribution of daily max-min spread, computed from 15-min prices, with KDE curve

Belgium — Imbalance Price Spread & Average (2025)

30-day rolling max/min with rolling average spread (red line) — Elia only publishes this dataset from May 2024

PV Capture (full years)

Monthly volume-weighted solar capture price: Σ(PV·DA)/Σ(PV). PV = Measured & Upscaled (Elia ods032 history + ods087 live, MW÷4 → MWh per 15-min) · DA price = ENTSO-E

Value of PV Curtailment (full years)

Value, per MWh of PV produced, of curtailing whenever DA < 0 €/MWh. Bar = avoided negative-price loss ÷ total PV volume: Σ(PV·−DA over DA<0) / Σ(PV). Green line = curtailed volume share: Σ(PV over DA<0) / Σ(PV). PV = Elia Measured & Upscaled · DA = ENTSO-E.

BE Solar Imbalance Cost (full years)

Opportunity cost of PV forecast error vs a perfect forecast, per MWh: Σ(actual − forecast)·(spot − imbalance) / Σ(actual). Green line = that cost as % of perfect-forecast turnover. actual = Elia Measured & Upscaled · forecast = Day-ahead 6PM (ods032) · imbalance = ods047/ods134 · spot = ENTSO-E DA.